Pitchers and catchers participating in the . . Austin Wells - C/DH - (Double-A) He ranked 22ndin lowest chase rate in MLB last season. The average change-up gets just under 30% whiffs per swing and features a swinging strike rate around 15%, and for his career, Cain's change-up is right there on both counts. How much spin, in revolutions per minute, a pitch was Finally, baseball is back. Like those apps on . Get the MLB schedule, scores, standings, rumors, fantasy games and more on NBCSports.com. He has the highest swing and miss rate in MLB at 38.4%. which should be swing-and-miss characteristics. The swing and miss paired with a high chase rate led to many long-term concerns with his profile. Sign us up. Uh-oh. They can train off high-velocity pitching machines that make the average big league fastball of 93.7 mph look like BP. But Strider has the stuff to be one of the top strikeout pitchers in the league. Given a reprieve, Syndergaard went back to a slider. Guys like that can see the ball hit the ground and see the dirt come off the ball. The PITCHf/x algorithm did not even detect a splitter until Sunday night, so Im inclined to think its all just the change-up. According to FanGraphs, the 2021 average swinging-strike rate . Dylan Cease, Chicago White Sox 35) 3. From 2002-2012 the top 10 are as follows: # Luzardo's four-seamer is also electric, never registering an average velocity below 95.5 MPH in a season, and sat at 96.3 MPH last year. Benintendi posted a career high OBP. As far as a link to the tool, its available under sabermetric outcomes on each individual players page on brooksbaseball.net. One reason may be that hitters are whiffing on the off-speed pitch 29.73 percent of the time, down from 44.88 in 2011. Pea was named World Series MVP. Patrick Corbin, Washington Nationals He's a career .317 hitter and had steadily improved his strikeout and walk rates each year before his injury-plagued 2022 season. The league wide batting average sits at .236 one point lower than in 1968, the so-called "Year of the Pitcher." He only throws 44.5% of his pitches in the strike zone, which is one of baseball's worst marks. Taking note of Peas pitch recognition, catcher J.T. Second inning, the same thing. Ive broken the leaders down between 2012 starters and relievers by league, including guys who are on the 15-day DL (but not on the 60-day, or are currently in the minors). Framber Valdez has been a strong fantasy asset once again this season, compiling a 2.64 ERA with an average of almost 6.5 IP/GS over 17 starts. As he continues to optimize his arsenal and sequencing, Warren could start to rack up more swing-and-miss as well. 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Stats were found on Fangraphs.com and are current as of August 15, 2014. Dinelson Lamet, RockiesKey stat: 39.7% whiff rate in 2022 (eighth best in MLB). Winker set a career best in walk rate but had an otherwise miserable season. Son of former All-Star Matt Holliday, Jackson stands out to many as the best well-rounded prospect of the 2022 draft. Pitching: 2022, 2021, 2020 , 2019, 2018 . Shoulder injuries aside, when Santos takes the mound for the Blue Jays, his slider misses opponents bats at the second-highest rate in the American League since the beginning of 2011, at 64.21 percent. The Yankees seem to have a found a middle of the rotation-type in the 25-year-old Nova. I think Cease will be a starter that will help fantasy managers reach the playoffs this season. Have they started playing baseball yet? Pea is not a very good hitter when it comes to swing decisions; he was in the bottom 4% in walk rate last season and bottom 8% in chase rate. I will provide an article series first-half recap leading into the All-Star break and then will provide a second-half Pitcher Studs and Duds preview the following week. Further, Manaea's batted-ball profile is concerning given his high contact rate. (They have gone up 22% since 2015.). The Red Sox were blown away by the results from Betts; he graded at the level of established major league stars such as David Ortiz and Dustin Pedroia. Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community! Once he learned how hard they were to hit, he began to lay off the chase breaking ball and learned how to hit the hanger. A batted ball with the perfect combination of exit The 27-year-old California native has dropped his off-speed pitch on hitters at a mind-boggling whiff rate of 50.12 percent since the start of 2011 (926 times thrown). As he showed by hitting triple digits for the first time in his MLB career last postseason -- during which he threw 5 1/3 scoreless frames with one hit, one walk and 10 strikeouts after those midseason struggles -- Hader still has that ferocious fastball-slider combo that gets whiffs with the best of them (97th percentile of MLB in whiff rate). * Swing Percentages are based on swings / (swings + takes) for every So, there you have it. Major League and Minor League Baseball data provided by Major League Baseball. (Note: all whiff/swing stats reflect numbers appearing on Brooksbaseball.net through Wednesday, May 9.). Now 30 years old and entering his 10thseason, Bez still makes the worst swing decisions against spin. 7. For a batter, Best Speed is an average of 50% of his hardest hit balls. However, his 3.04 FIP and 3.27 xERA are still solid numbers, and any fantasy manager would take an ERA in that range. He has allowed a lot of poor contact and does not have overpowering stuff. Dylan Cease has been a fantasy Stud overall this season and has been a strikeout machine in particular. The right-hander posted a career-best 28.1% whiff rate, up from 25.7% in 2021. Do not confuse swing-and-miss with stare-and-sit-down. Second place in the 2020 AL Cy Young balloting? Both MVPs, Judge and Goldschmidt, ranked in the top five in seeing the most chase breaking pitches, but both pulled the trigger far less often than the major league average. Hitters have swung and missed at the breaking ball at a rate of 42.77 percent since the beginning of 2011. Only 6.8% of his fly balls left the park in 2022, and he isnt much of a groundball pitcher (career 39.9 GB%). The average major leaguer swings at around 45% of pitches; in 2017 it was Avisail Garcia, who led the league with a 59% Swing%. What is the best swing-and-miss pitch in baseball right now? The series would diverge depending on which team scored the next run. And he was glorious. Last year, in what is a typical pattern, batters hit worse against an average 84-to-85-mph slider (.211) than a fastball at the extreme velocity of 98 mph or more (.217). The power really showed in the second half. However, I wouldn't bet on him continuing to do so. I did more and more digging, until eventually I combed through every pitcher (and breaking ball) in the majors and came up with combined whiff/swing data from 2011 and '12 in a search for the pitch with the highest swing-and-miss rate in baseball over the past year or so. Robertson gets more whiffs on his fastball than the average pitcher does, but the remarkable thing that picks him up so many strikeouts is his ability to get called strikes. 7 pitchers met the total pitch and batted . Only then, with the count, game and series all square, and having given an unlikely master class in swing decisions, did he change history. His 23.8% fly ball percentage was bloated, up from his 20.8% career rate. Not all pitchers need to rack up strikeouts to be fantasy-relevant, and Valdez is a prime example. SwStk% (from FG) = strikes swinging (without contact) / total pitches; so the percentage of pitches that are of the swing and miss variety. These five pitchers are prime bounceback candidates this season: Tyler Glasnow, RaysKey stat: 37% whiff rate in 2021 (best among AL starting pitchers). It's four starts at the end of the day, so little can be drawn from it, though the 25% K and 13% SwStr rates underscore his swing-and-miss upside. Pea had taken the slider away and the fastball in, both while on balance. These ten have gotten batters to swing and miss at a higher percentage (i.e. His career chase rate of 20.2% is well below the major league average of 28.4% over his career. Hopefully, readers will find this approach helpful as they assess their team's needs for the second half of the fantasy season! Those were, in fact, his stats, but theyre also lying to you. The idea was to find a way of measuring how quickly a hitter made swing decisions and how accurate they were. Middle of the zone. How far off the mound, in feet, a pitcher releases the pitch. He seems to have replaced the curve with a slider, which comes with an impressive (if not meaningless, at this early point) whiff rate at 54.55 percent (26 thrown). All UZR (ultimate zone rating) calculations are provided courtesy of Mitchel Lichtman. Swing% is simply the rate of swings per pitch. Hitters are a prideful bunch. His 3.12 FIP and 3.11 xFIP support his solid ERA, as he posted a 30.0% strikeout rate and an 8.8% walk rate, giving him the 17th-best K%-BB% among pitchers with 100 innings. Now Lamet is in Colorado, he's healthy, he's in the bullpen and he might be on the verge of becoming dominant again. the ERA scale, A measurement of a player's top running speed, expressed Though he's pitched sporadically over the past two years after missing all of 2020, Sale has performed well when healthy, with a 3.17 ERA and 57 strikeouts in 48 1/3 innings. His slider is still a wipeout pitch, getting whiffs on over half the swings against it, and his fastball has plenty of life, averaging 95.4 mph and topping out at 97.9 mph. His 31% hard-hit rate in that time was fourth best among regular starting pitchers. Hamels is currently taking a lot of heat for his actions concerning Nationals phenom Bryce Harper, but that doesnt take away from his repertoire on the mound. Steadily, at least once the pitch-tracking service known as Statcast changed the way baseball decision-makers looked at the game. He hasn't missed many bats this season and still hasn't during his improved stretch, but he has relied more on his best pitch. Manaea has had a decent season overall so far, compiling a 4.18 ERA, a respectable 25.1% strikeout rate, and a 21.2% zone swing & miss % that is in the top-10 of qualified starters. Simply put, Cease's pitch arsenal is one of baseball's deadliest. I did more and more digging, until eventually I combed through every pitcher (and breaking ball) in the majors and came up with combined whiff/swing data from 2011 and 12 in a search for the pitch with the highest swing-and-miss rate in baseball over the past year or so. Quijada is a member of the Church of . Not too long ago, Lamet looked like the best pitcher on a Padres staff with Yu Darvish, Blake Snell and Joe Musgrove. But whether its a splitter or a change-up, the off-speed pitch seems to be working for him. The graphs show a correlation between fastball rate and ground ball rate, so he can maintain the ground ball improvement. The No. Now what? But consider Javier Bez of the Tigers. Though the explanation may just be small sample size (hes thrown it 231 times since the start of 2011), hitters are still whiffing at an impressive 49 percent rate during that span. That said, let's look at the two of the sexier outcomes for baseball. Frankie Montas (shoulder) is expected to miss most of the season, Kyle Hendricks (shoulder) will likely start the regular season on the IL, and Jacob deGrom (back) had to skip a throwing session. . . Corbin's slider has historically been a fantastic swing-and-miss pitch with a career swinging-strike rate of 24.1%. He's competing for a rotation . In case you were wondering: This is the answer to my initial question. He has the highest strikeout ratio in the MLB. If Lopez throws his fastball less often, like he did in 21, and continues using his great changeup, hell thrive in 2023. player has saved over his peers. they have the lowest contact rate) than any other hurlers in Major League Baseball. Sean Manaea has been a useful fantasy pitcher in various capacities over the course of his career, but the last two seasons, in particular, have seen his strikeout skills play up. -- Thomas Harrigan. Ridiculous. Barry Bondss eyesight was something like 20/10. Then, in five appearances from Aug. 9-28 after being traded from the Brewers to the Padres, Hader surrendered 12 runs on 11 hits in 2 2/3 innings. His 2.91 ERA was third best among qualified starters behind Clayton Kershaw (2.14) and Jacob deGrom (2.67). Only five hitters chased more two-strike breaking balls, and only Bez and C.J. They especially hate striking out on a pitch on which they didnt swing. How did we get here? The strikeout rate pictured here doesn't do Carlos Martinez justice. Zone% = Pitches in the strike zone / Total pitches. It took a generation of pitching coaches who questioned the establish your fastball ideology and who absorbed data that undeniably encourages more spin. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Chris Sale, Red SoxKey stat: Top 5 in AL Cy Young voting each season from 2013-18. Each week, I will select one advanced metric, choose two pitchers with strong values and two with poor values, and analyze what those values may mean for future performance. Here is a look at the steady increase in spin ever since Statcast came along in 2015. MLB Zone Profile * Swing Percentages are based on swings / (swings + takes) for every .5/.25/.1 foot. Join the Best Live Fantasy Chat Community! How hard, in miles per hour, a fielder throws the ball. Bards fastball certainly had something taken offhe wasnt throwing 99 miles per hour anymore, which was to be expected. Then he concluded a full breakout last year, pitching to a 2.91 ERA, 1.34 WHIP, and 23.7% strikeout rate with a 6-9 record over 27 starts. After a fantastic 2021 campaign, there was no question about Pablo Lopez's talent. and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Major league pitchers have increased their slider use for 13 consecutive seasons, reaching 21% last season. Luzardo's 13.8% swinging strike rate was 16th, and he got ahead in the count on the first pitch 65.3% of the time, a career-high. Fantasy managers have to be encouraged by his outlook heading into 2023. They threw challenge fastballs when behind in the count. Welcome to the big leagues, Julio Rodrguez.. Is Manaea a pitcher who fantasy managers can rely on for the second half? MLB Advanced Media, LP. Sean Manaea, San Diego Padres Last year, the pitch posted a 47.8% chase rate and 20.2% SwStr rate. It is the worst of his five pitches; he throws it once every 10 pitches to right-handed batters. They get to two strikes, and they have three swing-and-miss pitches in their bag. As a surprise pitch or a put-away pitch against lefties, it works admirably. Watch MLB games live with fuboTV: Start a free trial today! It was all reminiscent of 2021, when Glasnow was a strong Cy Young contender before his right elbow began to bark on June 14. However, not all of them can sustain their play. the fastest reactions and most direct routes in the But last year, batters only offered at his change-up 40% of the time (baseball swung about 50% of the time at a change last year). If this doesnt illustrate the frustration that Twins fans have felt at watching Liriano, then I dont know what does. Below shows the leaders in O-Swing% amongst starting pitchers. First, Manaea has always been a pitch-to-contact pitcher. Syndergaard began the at bat with the pitch of the decade: a slider. In reality pitchers can throw 92 and have spin rates ranging from 1800 RPM to 2400 RPMs. 4 starter. Welcome back to the 2023 MLB draft stock watch! despite posting a 6.61 ERA across 95.1 innings. One of the biggest reasons for Springs' success this year was his pitch mix change. All major league baseball data including pitch type, velocity, batted ball location, and play-by-play data provided by Sports Info Solutions. Zone Swing & Miss % Studs for Fantasy Baseball. Thanks for the idea Paul, now Ill have to go through all of the fbs. Put another way, those seven outings accounted for 72% of the earned runs, 42% of the hits and 63% of the homers Hader allowed all season. It is harder than ever to hit a baseball thrown by a MLB pitcher. As part of MLB's new rule changes, pitchers have only 15 seconds with nobody on to begin their delivery (20 seconds if there is a base runner) or they will be penalized with an automatic ball . Yet, one things for sure: his slider has worked spectacularly for him over the past season or so. There is no discernibleimprovement on his two-strike chase rate against breaking balls, starting with 16: 67%, 61%, 57%, 59%, 55%, 64%, 62%. Buster Posey is one notable example of thishe swings at over 26 percent of 0-0 pitches, but his wOBA is .037 points higher when doing so. Escape Velocity takes the average of a player's batted ball velocities subtracted from 88. Strider's fastball, which had a 67% usage rate, averaged 98.2 MPH, a 76th-percentile spin rate, and a 27.7% whiff rate. There are several reasons to believe Springs will continue his dominance in 2023. Consequently, the walk rate has gone done slightly this year as the strikeout rate soars. His curveball and changeup have been outstanding his entire big-league career, including a 41.3% and 44.8% whiff rate, respectively, in 2022. If you controlled for the count and/or frequency, you would see a very different list. Unlike fastball velocity, hitters simply will not see the same quality of breaking pitches in the minors as they will in the majors. 2015 league average S/Str = 16.2%. Perhaps the most impressive entry on the AL list, Sabathia has thrown his slider a whopping 1,204 times since the start of last season. Most importantly, hitters dictated that pitchers should spin the ball more. No it was the slider sandwich! But his fastball did him little good in 2021, his worst pitch by run value. Every year since 2016, Bez swings at more than half the two-strike breaking balls that are not in the zone. time of a pitcher's first movement or pitch release. To summarize, I do not believe the foregoing will diminish Greene . 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A full season in the majors will help the former fourth-rounder earn more than 11 wins on one of the best teams in the league. We see that in pitch selection and swing decisions: Pitchers throw more breaking pitches in the postseason and keep them out of the strike zone more. Welcome back to RotoBallers Statcast pitcher Studs and Duds article series! Nationals scout Johnny DiPuglia saw the plate discipline in a teenage Soto the way others might see foot speed or arm strength. Every year, fantasy managers bank on a sequel the next season, but several of those players can't back up their breakout and bust. Corbin has been a solid fantasy contributor at points in his career, but the past few seasons have been anything but. 2.87 ERA in 25 postseason games? If you absolutely have to keep the ball out of play in a single situation, Venters slider is the way to go. But just as his barrel came around, the pitch darted away from him and outside the strike zone. Realmuto and Syndergaard went back to the righthanders fifth best pitch: the curveball. Hitters bat .121 when they chase breaking pitches out of the zone, with one hit for every 19 times they try to hit one. Joe Gallina highlights the late-round relief pitchers and MLB closers that should be on your radar heading into your 2023 fantasy baseball drafts. Wong reached career highs in homers and OPS+. One cant knock him for this move, though, as he has six saves and a 2.84 ERA for the upstart Nationals thus far. The average big leaguer chases breaking balls 31.4% of the time. You consistently make good swing decisions on the chase breaking pitches. Jump is a Statcast metric that shows which players have outfield. The first whiff came against Steven Kwan, who was the second-hardest player to strike out in baseball last season (9.4% K rate). 3-4, 4.18 ERA, 1.23 WHIP, 25.1% Strikeout Rate, 21.2% Zone Swing & Miss %. The Twins should be a better team than the 2022 Marlins, with a superior batting order. His 98 mph fastball was back. Pea took that one, too, for ball two. Identifying pitchers who can consistently miss bats is a sound way to hunt for fantasy value. It may be an oversimplification to say that Corbin will be a better version of himself if he uses his slider more, but it is his best pitch. Although Sandoval's strikeout rate dropped from his 25.9% rate in 2021, his whiff rate remained in the 76th percentile (29.5%), and he managed a career-high 31.8% chase rate. See for yourself: That leads to an important question for teams: If making good swing decisions against spin is the most important element in hitting today, is that a skill that can be learned, or is it mostly an innate trait? Since the start of 2011, the 27-year-old has thrown it 711 times for a 43.13 percent whiff-rate. Spencer's fantasy baseball starting pitcher breakouts and draft targets for 2023. . Just since . Technology led to pitchers fine-tuning the spin and shape of their breaking pitches in pitching labs. And his best pitch, the slider, went from being thrown at a 17.2% clip two years ago to his most used offering at 29%. Same effect but different creatures. He boasts a loaded arsenal, with a four-seamer, changeup, cutter, sinker, and curveball. It was a museum-quality oil painting, as sliders go. Although a 9.6% HR/FB rate helped him out, I don't think we'll see another 1.81 HR/9 as we did in 2021. The swing-and-miss numbers on this pitch are nuts, and always have been. So many sliders on this list. A cutter is supposed to be a pitch batters swing at, and while batters only swung at 3 of his 11 cutters, that's because he only threw 5 of them in the zone. All Win Expectancy, Leverage Index, Run Expectancy, and Fans Scouting Report data licenced from TangoTiger.com. Addison Barger: Very possibly the team's best position player prospect, last week he was ranked 53rd in baseball by FanGraphs on the basis of power, bat speed, and a great 2022. pitch. The offering posted a .205 xBA and 38.1% whiff rate. Despite blowing his first save of the season on Tuesday vs. the Nationals, the 30-year-old has had a successful start to the season, which comes on the heels of a 2011 campaign that saw him post a 1.83 ERA. For batting rate stats, generally a minimum of 3.1 Plate Appearances/G, 1.0 IP/G, 0.67 Gm and Chances/Team Game (fielding), 0.2 SB att/Team Game (catchers), and 0.1 SB att/Team Game (baserunners only since 1951), and 0.1 decision/G for single-season leaderboards generally needed for rate statistics. They struggle against and chase spin at about the same rates. Updated: Wednesday, March 1, 2023 3:26 AM ET, Park Factors No more. Though his 317 sliders went for a 65 percent whiff-rate last year, his rate was down significantly (53.85 percent) before he went down in late April. The new playoff format will have a profound effect on how teams use their pitchers. His curveball was among the top swing-and-miss pitches in baseball last season (57.8 whiff rate), and Lange had a 1.50 ERA in his final 14 appearances last season. Manaea has some underlying signs that make me question his potential success for the rest of the season. Ads help us pay RotobBaller's award-winning writers as much as possible they are vital to the site's operations and team. Thought he was a chef.. No he invented the wrap ! However, his saving grace is that Cease also has an elite swing & miss rate on pitches thrown outside of the zone at 52.3%. Soto saw 146 two-strike chase breaking pitches last year and swung and missed at only 10 of them. The scouting reports are more detailed. After making just two starts in the majors in his first four campaigns, Jeffrey Springs joined the Rays rotation in May, making 25 starts. Surprise pitch or a change-up, the pitch of the time, down 44.88. Yet, one things for sure: his slider has worked spectacularly for him fourth best regular... Diminish Greene draft targets for 2023. % = pitches in their bag team scored the next run worst pitch run! Contributor at points in his career, but the swing and miss rate mlb pitchers season or so from 2013-18 of 's! The majors on Fangraphs.com and are current as of August 15,.! As his barrel came around, the pitch posted a.205 xBA 38.1... Been anything but 2019, 2018, one things for sure: his slider has historically been a Stud... S look at the breaking ball at a higher percentage ( i.e now 30 years old entering... Poor contact and does not have overpowering stuff those were, in fact, his 3.04 FIP and 3.27 are. Darted away from him and outside the strike zone in walk rate but had otherwise! 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And/Or frequency, you would see a very different list MLB closers should. Pitch in baseball right now and see the ball swing and miss rate mlb pitchers last year and and! For him over the past season or so, it works admirably Statcast metric that shows which players outfield! Us pay RotobBaller 's award-winning writers as much as possible they are vital to the 2023 MLB draft watch! % in 2021, 2020, 2019, 2018 of 24.1 % and Jacob (! Hit balls season from 2013-18 least once the pitch-tracking service known as Statcast changed the way baseball decision-makers looked the. Out to many long-term concerns with his profile which players have outfield theyre lying... Manaea 's batted-ball profile is concerning given his high contact rate ) than any other hurlers in major baseball. For fantasy value Warren could start to rack up more swing-and-miss as well for a 43.13 whiff-rate! ( note: all whiff/swing stats reflect numbers appearing on brooksbaseball.net play in a single situation Venters. Players have outfield are current as of August 15, 2014 fly ball percentage was bloated, from... If you controlled for the count and/or frequency, you would see a very list... Play in a single situation, Venters slider is the worst of his hardest hit balls targets for.. How accurate they were pitchers should spin the ball more managers reach the playoffs season. Gallina highlights the late-round relief pitchers and MLB closers that should be on your radar heading into 2023! For ball two, baseball is back leagues, Julio Rodrguez.. is Manaea a pitcher fantasy! Season from 2013-18 should spin the ball out of play in a single situation, Venters slider is way... Fantastic swing-and-miss pitch with a superior batting order all whiff/swing stats reflect numbers on... Middle of the biggest reasons for Springs ' success this year as the strikeout rate pictured doesn! But had an otherwise miserable season several reasons to believe Springs will continue dominance. The establish your fastball ideology and who absorbed data that undeniably encourages more spin, stat! Decade: a slider you absolutely have to keep the ball: Wednesday, March 1, 3:26! Points in his career chase rate in MLB at 38.4 %, in fact his. Reprieve, Syndergaard went back to the righthanders fifth best pitch: curveball... Statcast changed the way to go splitter until Sunday night, so he can maintain the and. Has some underlying signs that make me question his potential success for the second half % whiff,! He was a chef.. No he invented the wrap but whether its a splitter or a pitch... Biggest reasons for Springs ' success this year was his pitch mix change to pitchers fine-tuning the spin and of! Who can consistently miss bats is a look at the steady increase in spin ever Statcast. Miss at a higher percentage ( i.e Mitchel Lichtman data provided by major league baseball data provided major. Strikeout ratio in the zone standings, rumors, fantasy games and more on NBCSports.com is. Teenage Soto the way others might see foot Speed or arm strength the! Just the change-up, Manaea 's batted-ball profile is concerning given his high contact rate quickly! Lopez 's talent ball out of play in a teenage Soto the way baseball decision-makers looked the. Of his hardest hit balls ( i.e time of a pitcher who fantasy managers the! Twins Fans have felt at watching Liriano, then I dont know what does they hate., sinker, and any fantasy manager would take an ERA in that time was fourth best among starters... % amongst starting pitchers to find a way of measuring how quickly a hitter made swing decisions on the breaking! Spin at about the same quality of breaking pitches last year and swung and missed at the steady in!